49ers 31, Rams 17

For the third straight game, the 49ers dug themselves into a 14 point hole, then methodically clawed their way out and won.

This time, they were down 14-0 after the first quarter and looked to be heading into the half trailing 14-3, when out of the blue, with 30 seconds left in the half, Brandon Lloyd juked out Rams CB Janoris Jenkins and raced down the sideline for an 80 yard TD that sucked all the wind out of the Rams.

From that point on, it was all 49ers. And all Colin Kaepernick (3 TD passes and 343 yards). And DC Vic Fangio, who once again figured out what the opponent was doing, then shut them down completely for the final three quarters. All the while mixing in replacements for injured 49er starters.

The team is now without Patrick Willis, Tramaine Brock, NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, and Glenn Dorsey — five starters! — yet the 49er defense continues to shine. Rams QB Austin Davis was 11-14 in the first half, but only 10-28 in the second. The Rams had 75 yards rushing in the first half, but only 18 in the second.

For the most part, the 49ers avoided their Red Zone feebleality by scoring from long range! The 80 yard TD, a 32 yarder to Michael Crabtree, and an 11 yarder to Anquan Boldin. Technically, the 11 yarder was in the Red Zone, but it’s the First and Goal situations that seem to baffle 49ers’ OC Greg Roman.

And sure enough, late in the 4th quarter, with a chance to close out the game with a first down at the Rams’ two, the team went phhhttt. After TEs Vernon Davis and Vance McDonald both got wide open in the back of the end zone, only to run into each other and muff the pass, Roman dialed up three straight runs into the middle of the line. Result: 1 yard, no points, and ball to the Rams.

Just to emphasize the futility, the 49ers tried Frank Gore up the middle on 4th and 1 from the Rams 34 a few minutes later and once again got stuffed.

We’re getting close to the definition of insanity here. The last time the 49ers had any luck on first and goal situations or picking up 1 measly yard, Jimmy Raye was the OC (2009). If Raye weren’t employed elsewhere (Miami is his latest stop, I think), we could hire him to run the offense from inside the ten.

But what fun would that be? No nail-biting end games. No Rolaids inducing anxiety. No cursing and heaving shit at the TV and foaming at the mouth while your wife and children look on in horror at the beast that lies within. Ladies and gentlemen, your San Francisco 49ers. Somehow they usually emerge on top, even though you hardly had a relaxing moment watching in the entire game.

Just a note, though. Falling 14 points behind Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos next Sunday might not be so easy to overcome.




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85 comments on “49ers 31, Rams 17
  1. robNo Gravatar says:

    Go niners

  2. robNo Gravatar says:

    Big test coming up this week against the denver mannings

  3. tonyNo Gravatar says:

    Hey Skeeb’s …I’m on my 3rd TV already this season… But Kappy did throw some pretty passes last night…so far this season there’s been a definite emphasis on the passing game. And it’s starting to show signs of coming around. But is it just me or is Vernon looking like a liability in the passing game again? He never had great hands or looked real smooth catching the ball. This next game with Denver will be interesting. And we sure don’t want to spot them 10 or 14 points. But watching the Denver game on Sunday, Manning REALLY looked like a statue in the pocket. He gave up a few sacks to the Jets without even getting hit. The Niner’s should be able to get to him. lets hope anyway…GO NINERS!!!

  4. EarlNo Gravatar says:

    Don’t know why they don’t try the pass/run option in the red zone. Play to Kappy’s strengths instead of mindlessly pounding it up the middle.

  5. SkeebersNo Gravatar says:

    Good to hear from you again, Tony. I was worried something had happened to you. I went ahead and wrote you down for your annual 14-2 prediction, just in case you were still alive.

  6. BergerNo Gravatar says:

    Kap handles pressure as well as any QB in football. Last night he had a lot of clean pockets as well as some pressure. Watching him pick apart the defense when he gets time is nice to see. Our pass pro was the best we’ve had all season and the QB looked great. Funny how that happens. It was against the Rams but what the heck, baby steps.

  7. BergerNo Gravatar says:

    I still can’t believe the blatant hold against Skuta and the tackle on Dahl that was not called at the point of attack on the Rams first TD. That play would have been stuffed for a loss. How do the refs miss something like that? I guess the same reason Crabtree can be pushed to the ground on his backside and not get a PI call. And then the Rams complain about an offensive PI that technically was a correct call. We’ve sure been flagged for much less than that. The officiating in the NFL sucks. I wish the replacement refs would have stayed. At least they were fair in their bungling.

  8. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    I was very impressed with what Fangio dialed up after getting torched early. The stunting and LB blintzes worked to perfection.

    Unfortunately, like the KC game, the Super Bowl, the Atl NFCCG, and a few others, we get our clock cleaned early to set up the comeback. By the time they adjust, the score is getting away.

    VMcD should be doing ‘wanna get out of here?’ Southwest ads after that performance.

  9. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    blitzes, not blintzes. Hey, I’m hungry.

    Yeah, well, the hands to the face calls are stupid beyond belief. The rules of engagement for linemen is impossible enough to determine, and an inadvertent brushing of the face mask should not draw a penalty. That can be called on every play. As with the PI-holding calls. The call on the Ram WR was terrible. As was the non-call on Crabtree. Hand checks get called, but pulling the guy down as he’s trying to turn for the ball?

    And yeah, as we saw in the NO game last year, wrapping your arm around a guy’s neck while he tries to disengage is a non-call.

    Officiating is getting worse and worse.

  10. SkeebersNo Gravatar says:

    “49ers re-sign QB Josh Johnson, who’s neck-and-neck for backup job with Blaine Gabbert, so he can practice this week. Bubba Ventrone cut again.”

  11. SkeebersNo Gravatar says:

    “Patrick Willis has sprained toe.”

  12. phil fanNo Gravatar says:

    Funny how ‘average’ pass pro looks great when we see the results = Kap being highly effective passing. We’re not used to it this year. The pass blocking was average for Iupati, Boone and Kilgore but this is an improvement over the first 5 games where it has been substandard. J Martin was below standard of decent pass pro but we know that. Staley was above average for pass pro against R Quinn as we saw and stats bear this out.

    Run blocking was not so great but that’s what happens when opponent loads the box as Rams did. So Kap made them pay a lot.

    Thanks to NF for the PFF summary.

  13. bullitNo Gravatar says:

    Ellington needs never field a punt on the 4 yard line.
    Bonehead rookie mistake and shows his inexperience as a punt returner.
    I hope to never see Ellington do that again especially with the punt coverage in his face.

  14. NJ49erNo Gravatar says:

    Officiating ABSOLUTELY sucked sack last night.

    Glad someone beside me saw the arm around the neck block(tackle) on Dahl on the Rams TD too Berger.
    Blatant and apparently invisible to the clowns in stripes.

    They also missed a blatant PI on Crabtree later in the game.
    These Officials were pathetic.

    Del, from the last thread, regarding your question about which bloggers I’d like to meet and have a drink with.

    Answer – All you guys!

    I’m a 9er Fan on the wrong Coast after all.

    If/when I ever get the chance to spend some time out there, I’ll absolutely try to find a way to meet you guys.

    Berger has extended several invites and, I’m hoping I can find a way to get out there, take in a 9er game and, spend some time with any and all of the cast from the blog-zone here.

    Phil, can we get a 1st down to seal a game?
    PLEASE…….

  15. phil fanNo Gravatar says:

    LOL NJ naw a 1st down? No can do, sorry : )

  16. NJ49erNo Gravatar says:

    They just love to eff with us Phil.
    I can do without the drama, thank you very much.

  17. phil fanNo Gravatar says:

    Only listened to the radio broadcast of the game as video blocked/screwed up over here. Tim Ryan said on both plays that QB bootleg around end was open and should have worked. But we used the standard RB up the gut. Maybe we are saving the trickeration for, you know, the Seahawks?

  18. NJ49erNo Gravatar says:

    Well Phil, I was attempting a little levity with the comment I made about saving some surprises for Pete, simply because we’ve been so damn conservative.

    We opened things up last night vs StL thankfully but, we’re still extremely predictable when things matter.
    Goal line, trying to burn down the clock in crunch time too.

    Some WCO made it’s way into the game too.
    Good to see.

    Stevie and Bling look like nice additions too.

    Makes a Defense respect more weapons.
    VMcD had a nice catch and run until he coughed it up too.
    Good play call, TE crosser, worked well.
    Just have to get him to wrap the ball up better next time.

    We showed signs of life in the passing game, nothing wrong with that.

  19. NJ49erNo Gravatar says:

    I’m thinking Stevie is an insurance policy for Crabtree too.
    If Crabtree becomes too expensive to retain next year, I’d have no problems keeping Stevie if given the option.
    He’s quicker and,,seems to be a little more elusive and versatile.

    Time will tell.

  20. NoFear49erNo Gravatar says:

    Phil, far be it from me to dispute Tim Ryan but I thought there were corners keeping contain and a fairly good DE and an OLB on the other play looking for the QB keeper.

    It’s easy to say those runs on fourth down were dumb plays because they didn’t work. And Iupati was out. But on the goal line play, Looney, taking Iupati’s spot, got stood up on the goal line and Hyde just crashed into him and got tackled. On the play with Gore running (not up the middle, by the way) Looney pulled to lead into the hole, the DT shot through the empty hole and Kilgore missed the block so the D tackle caught Gore at the LOS.

    Both those plays would have worked had Looney not get out leveraged by not keeping his pads down and Kilgore blocking his man for half a second.

    It don’t matter. I know nobody gives a shit why it didn’t work they just like calling it the same old dumb play and ripping on the play caller for the piss poor player execution.

    The first possession in the fourth Q Gore ran up the middle for six. That was followed by five wide and four wide spread plays for two incompletes followed by a punt. Yeah, three and out. A good 1st down run and two “stupid pass plays from the stupid spread that never works. Dumb, dumb, dumb.” Makes as much sense, doesn’t it?

  21. phil fanNo Gravatar says:

    Right NF it’s hard to get yardage for new set of downs if the blocking (= execution) isn’t there. There is much to be said for running these ‘boring/useless’ plays which keep D honest. Ryan seemed more certain on the first of the 4th down plays that it was open for Kap to keep it.

    Jack Hammer: ” A lot of debate about Harbaugh’s decision to go for it twice on 4th and short late. I like the decision. It was a situation where his defense was dominating and he was basically saying to the Rams, “even if we don’t make it you can’t beat us” while getting his offense extra work on short yardage situations.”

    Well NF we do need the work on our run blocking, eh? It’s been a strength but this game the Rams insisted Kap beat them w/ passing. No use blaming coaches if guys miss assignments

  22. 12th manNo Gravatar says:

    If the Rams have 8-9 in the box there will often be a missed block. Its a numbers game, so to me, on short yardage to keep trying the same play over and over with the same results it becomes a low percentage play.

  23. BergerNo Gravatar says:

    12th- You nailed it. We were outnumbered. The odds are we were not going to make it with good blocking.

    Fisher was even loading the box on three wide. That doesn’t happen much. The O-line did good in pass pro for once and Kap was able to burn them.

  24. BergerNo Gravatar says:

    NoFear says:

    “The first possession in the fourth Q Gore ran up the middle for six. That was followed by five wide and four wide spread plays for two incompletes followed by a punt. Yeah, three and out. A good 1st down run and two “stupid pass plays from the stupid spread that never works. Dumb, dumb, dumb.” Makes as much sense, doesn’t it?”

    I have to agree. This was a great example of Roman’s lack of rhythm. IMO, in that situation you keep the same personnel and a similar formation and run the ball again or call play action. To change out the personnel and go 5 wide empty backfield is another example that this coaching staff likes the element of surprise more than rhythm play calling.

  25. BergerNo Gravatar says:

    I won’t say the spread with 5 wide never works but just like the tight formations I don’t care to use either of them often because both are too one dimensional. Three wide and 4 wide give plenty of options to run and pass. I like 3 wide the most because with 3 wide a good passing game with plenty of options can be designed while still being able to preserve an element of a power running game. The Rams took that element away by loading the box often so we took the pass option more often.

  26. BergerNo Gravatar says:

    The play calling was not bad but for my liking it lacked rhythm. The ultra conservative in the clutch is IMO the coaching staff going back to what they are comfortable with at this point since that is what they’ve called for years. I believe at some point they will grow out of this habit.

    I can tell you that when our opponent is in a short yardage situation I always like to see them in the Sardine Can Offense. It is just so much easier to defend.

  27. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    12th, you took the words right out of my mouth. The Rams were loading the box with 8 guys on FIRST down. On 4th down it was everybody and the kitchen sink. 10 against 7 isn’t going to work 999 out of 1000 times.

    This was another case of a game that should have been srubbinis in the 4th quarter, yet they let StL back into it by going conservative on offense and soft on defense. I hate it when they stop doing what worked all game to keep the big play from happening only to let them match down the field and score.

    Still waiting for that complete game. I swear, Harbs is allergic to double-digit leads.

    The overarching point, NoFear, is that telegraphing your plays, whether it be with the 7-on-the-line 4th and 1, or the 5-wide-empty-backfield, the intent is known before the ball is snapped. Sure, there’s a little bit of ‘just try to stop our shit’ but recent memory holds very true that this team has a pretty low success rate when trying to run inside the tackles on 4th and 1.

  28. 12th manNo Gravatar says:

    I don’t agree the bootleg was open on either play. First thing I looked for was how wide was potential contain-v-potential blockers, didn’t look open to me and I doubt Fisher suddenly forgot about Kap’s wheels.

  29. 12th manNo Gravatar says:

    Running plays use the clock and that is valuable but not as valuable as say a first down.

  30. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    All you do in that situation is Play-action, chip block with the TE and send him into the flat for a short safe pass. Or with Miller.

    The few times they did try to roll out, the Niners were outnumbered, and Kappy was instantly under pressure from an unblocked rusher. It led to a throwaway in the end zone, and the bizarre popup throw that was almost completed on the 2.

    It’s hard to execute when you are outnumbered.

  31. BergerNo Gravatar says:

    Being outnumbered by one is fairly normal since the QB handing off the ball makes it that way. The QB is not a blocker and he usually is not a runner. There are formations that can be used to keep it that way and other formations that make it worse. When formations being used allow being outnumbered by multiples the chances of success go down. The blocking has to be more perfect and many times perfect blocking doesn’t work because the numbers are swayed too far for the defense. Formations are a huge deal when calling plays. IMO, we aren’t one of the better teams in the NFL when it comes to selecting the correct formation for the situation but at least we are getting better at it. Unfortunately, we still go back tour roots in the red zone.

  32. NoFear49erNo Gravatar says:

    What does “outnumbered” mean to you? They only get eleven and they have two sides of the field to cover, too.

    The offense has a QB and the defense has a safety they rarely give up to outnumber inline blockers and can’t if the offense splits out at least a single receiver.

    The CBs aren’t going to give up their contain/cutback responsibilities and even playing close they aren’t going to stop many inside runs. So the defense has their front seven and a SS. That’s enough to put four on each side of the center and maybe cheat the Will backer over a little toward the strength of the offense.

    In the case of Gore’s 4th and 1, we put two tight ends on the right side outside of the tackle. That caused STL to put the SS on the line next to the Sam backer and the LCB in off coverage tight. That gives the defense four on the line, the MLB and the LCB, six, on the strength side of the center. We had four on the line (G,T,TE,TE) and the FB (who was in the I but is likely a playside player on a run) so we have five plus a pulling guard. That’s six hats on six hats.

    What’s “outnumbered” about that? Each guy has a part in that play and it’s a play we’re pretty good at running. Nobody told Joe Gibbs to quit running John Riggins in that “stupid” power run play.

  33. 12th manNo Gravatar says:

    I think nobody would suggest the Niners stop running that play if its percentage of success, when they absolutely have to make the down, were higher.
    Maybe it’s just me but it seems like that play rarely works in situational football. As a play mixed in during the course of the game it does but when the whole world knows its coming it rarely does. Niners don’t overpower a stacked box very often so its a low percentage play to call yet they keep calling it.
    Head shaker.

  34. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    Outnumbered means we have 7 blockers and they have 8 rushers. Or they run blitz and it’s 7 on 9.

    Do you think those 4th and 1 calls were merely poor execution?

    What of the other 95% of those short yardage plays that fail? How many times can they ‘fail to execute’ a short yardage play?

    At what point does it become obvious that the runs inside the tackles on 3rd (or 4th) and short just isn’t working?

    It’s the definition of insanity.

  35. phil fanNo Gravatar says:

    Hey 12th good to see you over here fella.

    So much for outnumbered but IF we can actually run the play as called, blocking correctly, these plays work much better, no? This is where we are weak IMO particularly in this game where our mindset was on passing and pass pro. But Iupati, A Davis being out has an effect on us trying to run the ball. Not to mention a new center. Should we give up the 12 (1 RB, 2 TE) on short yardage or execute the play correctly? Hammer makes the point we need practice on this. Clearly we do. The things that some people don’t like about Harbaugh, Roman are “You know it’s coming, try to stop it” are (can be) a strength. This is Mid West power running football and is an essential element of our attack.

    We’ve got to grow into being actually able to run these plays not ‘outgrow’ them. Harbaugh/Hammer were right = they stopped us twice and still couldn’t beat us. Fisher is a stubborn guy like Jimi and likely we will see this repeated at Levis after the Bye.

  36. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    Failure to execute? By your definition, every play should be a touchdown, and 99% of the plays run are failures because they don’t go perfectly as designed.

  37. phil fanNo Gravatar says:

    Outnumbered does not apply to the two plays we are discussing. NF does a great job of dissecting this above. What applies is missed blocks, blown assignments that stuffed our rushing attempts. This is also known as a failure to execute the play design = getting a first down. That’s the point of running the 12 or 21 etc in those situations.

    Reading comprehension

  38. 12th manNo Gravatar says:

    My question would be why does it matter whether one agrees the box is overloaded or why the execution is not good enough if in the final analysis it is accepted that the critical short yardage play is a low percentage play why call it?

    The argument isn’t about who screwed up the play, its about the play rarely works in those circumstances for whatever reason.

  39. 12th manNo Gravatar says:

    Thx Phil, good jawing with ya.

  40. phil fanNo Gravatar says:

    Tactically yes it may be a low percentage play but strategically it sent the message “You can’t beat us even if you stop this”. And sure enough they couldn’t. And the Niners rely on that = Defense.

    The clock ran down, time outs were burned, pressure on the rookie QB went through the roof and bingo = Interception, game over. Will this be a perfect strategy every time? No but it IS a high percentage strategy evidently for the Niners coaching brain trust.

  41. phil fanNo Gravatar says:

    Right on 12th, take care man

  42. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    Phil that’s a problem. That’s Singletary mentality and it doesn’t win games. It causes things to happen like they did against Chicago. You give up leads if things go south.

    Walsh was never one to go with the will imposition thing. Get on top and stay on top. Don’t give the opposition a sniff. If we lose Stevie Johnson for the fact we couldn’t put the game away, it’s stupid. All to man up and say stop our run?

    Cutler beat us because we went conservative on offense and defense. Throw in some bad call and that lead evaporates and we lost. AZ was the same kind of thing.

  43. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    Outnumbered applies directly to plays like that. Why does it rarely work? They are overloading the box.

  44. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    You can execute that play 10 times and not make it 9 out of those 10. Those odds suck. That’s why Gore would have 15 carries for 2 yards and one for 60.

  45. phil fanNo Gravatar says:

    I’ll go with what the coaches have done to get us to 4-2 and the best record since Seifert not what some bloggers opine.

    Dubious stat dept at work again

  46. BergerNo Gravatar says:

    On the 4th and 1. Gore was tackled by two players. One from the back side and one from the front. That play was doomed from multiple fronts. There were 9 in the box. I’m surprised there weren’t ten in the box as we had 21 with an unbalanced line. That’s more sardine than 22.

    So we will agree to disagree. That type of football was Singletary’s bread and butter and he had a losing record. We move the ball well until we go with the Singletary game plan. Phil and NoFear are on record as fans of Singletary offensive football, most of the rest of us disagree. To each their own.

  47. phil fanNo Gravatar says:

    Chris Cook heads up play:

    http://www.sacbee.com/sports/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/article2831205.html

    Rams pulled this on us 2X recently but not on Sunday. Cook is a good pick up

  48. phil fanNo Gravatar says:

    Yeah Singletary = my hero. Lol

  49. phil fanNo Gravatar says:

    Want to hear some analysis besides “Yo Singletary”?

    Latest Better Rivals podcast:

    http://www.ninersnation.com/2014/10/15/6986435/better-rivals-podcast-manning-vs-kap-beating-the-blitz-game-planning

  50. NoFear49erNo Gravatar says:

    Mr. Phil, thanks for restoring my faith in humanity. I was beginning to think no one here was able to read past their own agendas. The play in question was not my imagination or a hypothetical. It’s on tape for any and all to see we had a blocker for every defender. It’s a fact and irrefutable. But still the same clueless idiots insist we were outnumbered and that “play” is a loser. What play? Does anyone spewing that nonsense even know how many times we run THAT particular play? I’m guessing no one even has a foggy idea because every time we get into a short yardage run it’s the same “play” to all these nonsense peddlers.

    Trying to discuss football with any of them is like trying to tell a delusional paranoid that there’s nobody following him or talking in his head. Which blog is your hammer head writing on?

    Berger, shove your name calling up your ass. I’m on record declaring you full of shit, assh0le.

  51. phil fanNo Gravatar says:

    Any time NoFear. Yeah the rigid focus on preconceived notions with an inability to take in, process and respond to additional info/details/facts is not the “definition of insanity” that the shrinks here want us to believe. But it does speak to an deficit of some kind. No matter to me and I’m not going to mention names as we all know who we are already. So name calling? Dumb. Childish, lol.

    But really this superficial “analysis” is a disservice to a complex game where 22 men are in motion at any given moment. Appreciate the breakdowns/facts of what goes on any given play. The rest is just opinion or worse.

  52. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    Thanks NoFear, for restoring my faith in obfuscation. All your blather means nothing. Phil, apparently imposing the will is more important than getting 1st downs and padding leads. And by my count, a few 1st downs could have gotten us to 5-1. Or even 6-0.

    When a play doesn’t work repeatedly, why go to it repeatedly? What has been a struggle for years with this team? 3rd and short. Too many 3 and outs. This isn’t a mystery or something that is a secret. It has been a big problem for years. We’ve gotten guys like Brandon Jacobs to fix the deal. Russell Westbrook even.

    What’s the constant factor? Packing the line and getting stuffed at the point of attack. Ohm we blocked it, but it didn’t work. Maybe next time? It’s the definition of insanity.

  53. phil fanNo Gravatar says:

    Lol thick as a brick

  54. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    Preconceived notions of not being able to convert 3rd downs, Phil? What’s the ‘agenda’ with getting frustrated about failing repeatedly on 3rd or 4th and short?

    For years, a lot of us have been saying we should get out of the 1 WR formations. They finally do it, and it seems to be working pretty well. Except for 3rd and short and in the red zone. Which is when they go back to the jumbo formation.

  55. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    Lol?

  56. phil fanNo Gravatar says:

    NF listening to the guys on Better Rivals grumbling about the simplistic “analysis” of Manning vs Kap by others reminds me of something…What could that be?

    Starts with discussion of Kaepernick’s QB play and they bemoan the “superficial simplistic discussion of him” = Kap vs Mannings play in a particular recent article = “atheletic vs cerebral” approaches.

    We see that here a lot about any number of aspects of the Niners. No big, people are going to defend their beliefs. I see it for what it and really don’t care or care to respond. But good not having to talk only to myself. (You DID warn me!)

  57. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    How about you bring something other than parroting NoFear, Phil?

    You’ve already said it’s better to impose the will on 4th down rather than try to get the 1st down other ways. IT’s better to fail with a run up the middle than say, play-action. You gonna stick with that?

  58. phil fanNo Gravatar says:

    I’m going to stick to not debating children

    For anybody here who would like to read a calm analysis of the 4th down decisions vs Rams:

    http://www.ninersnation.com/2014/10/14/6978201/jim-harbaugh-4th-down-decisions-49ers-vs-rams

    “The Case For Going For It
    -Conversion ends the game
    -Limited downside with a failed conversion
    -Showing trust in your players”

    Writer first discusses the case for not going for it in both situations.
    Here people seem to agree we should have gone for it but with different plays. This is a slightly different take = To go or not to go.

    This won’t change anybodys mind but has some good FACTS/Stats about 4th downs

  59. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    Bullitt’s not here. ?

    Stats don’t mean shit when both sides know we are going inside the tackles with the run on short yardage plays. Sure, it isn’t the place to go deep (we even tried that earlier and it didn’t work), but something more imaginative than the usual would seem to be in order. Imposing the will is great blackboard fodder, but I’m much more concerned with winning the game, and getting 2-3 scores up rather than having to gut out another close win. You set yourself up for problems if things go south. Which they did vs Chicago and AZ.

    League-wide averages don’t concern me. What concerns me is OUR conversion rate. We are better than recent history shows as far as 3rd down conversions go, but short yardage has historically been a problem. I don’t have our success rate on 3rd (and 4th) and less than 3, but based on what I’ve seen, it isn’t good.

  60. BergerNo Gravatar says:

    NoFear- Take your meds, you are getting over sensitive.

  61. bullitNo Gravatar says:

    Chuck

    Still trolling for a comment?
    Sometimes your BS just isn’t worth my time.
    You try to continually suck posters into juvenile pissing matches.
    Then you flip flop and say so what.

  62. BergerNo Gravatar says:

    NoFear’s irrefutable facts are as refutable as any facts on earth. I have the tape and I count 8 blockers and 9 in the box. I am not quite sure what kind of math some people use but I always considered 9 more than 8.

    The old philosophy of football was that we will overload the hole with a FB and a pulling guard, basically that is outnumbering a blocking scheme in old fashioned football. It worked until rule changes and sophisticated offensive strategies started to score more points making the old fashioned way not sustainable to a winning record because to win a team had to play mistake free football. With newer offensive philosophies a mistake or two is much easier to overcome. This because the offenses are more dynamic. I call it taking advantage of the rule changes.

    The theory of the three WR set is to not be out numbered in the running game and to give more flexibility in the passing game. With a three WR set 3 defenders must be put on the 3 WRs leaving a max of 7 in the box. With this set there are 6 available blockers. The Rams employed this often so we passed a lot vs them. Most teams will drop a safety back and many will drop 2. If a team drops 2 safeties back the blocking scheme is not 6 on 5. With one safety back it is 6 on 6. Either way the running should be more efficient because they are not outnumbered as they would be in the Sardine Can Formations. Three wide allows for a more balanced array of options while still being able to preserve a fundamentally sound running game.

  63. BergerNo Gravatar says:

    NoFear- What name did I call you? I went back and read what I posted and did not see where I called you a name. I said you are a fan of Singletary offensive football. Is that what you are terming as “name calling?” That is the style of football you are defending. Do you agree or disagree. If you disagree please explain. I am willing to learn.

  64. BergerNo Gravatar says:

    Phil- Nice article. I had no problem with going for it in either scenario, I had no problem with kicking either. One thing I can tell you for sure is when we lined up in the Singletary Offense most 49er fans were not too confident we would convert.

    That 58.7% 4th down conversion rate stated in the article says nothing about what formations were used, it simply states the overall rate. The discussion here is in regard to the Singletary formations. I’d like to know the conversion rate with the Singletary offense.

  65. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    Sometimes, Bullit? Hyuk!

    I just don’t get it, Bergs. For YEARS, this team has had trouble with 3rd and short runs. The stats bear this out.

    2010 – 3rd/4th and short running plays = 68% success rate (!)
    (passing success rate on 3/4 & short = 40% No surprise there)

    (I’ll call 2010 an outlier as the fact is we weren’t in a lot of these situations and we had a terrible 3rd down conversion rate overall of 39% running the ball. Much like the red zone success rate of Jimmy hat. It was great, but we weren’t there enough for it to matter.)

    2011 – 45% (passing = 53%)
    2012 – 62% (passing = 46%)
    2013 – 53% (passing = 78%)
    2014 – 40% (passing = 72%)

    The NFL average hovers around 67%. Strangely enough, the passing stats on 3/4 and short only have a 52% success rate league-wide.

    In other words, we are pretty bad at 3rd and short running the ball. Bud we are off the charts successful when throwing in that situation with Kappy as our QB.

  66. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    Right, Bergs. These stats don’t tell the types of running plays, but more often than not (80%), it’s the SCO with Gore between the tackles.

    Stats from Football Outsiders suggest that the QB sneak has a success rate of about 85% on 3rd/4th and short. With Kappy’s size, and no more Goodwin at C, I think this would be a good idea.

  67. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    Phil, all you have to remember is
    Facts are simple and facts are straight
    Facts are lazy and facts are late
    Facts all come with points of view
    Facts don’t do what I want them to
    Facts just twist the truth around
    Facts are living turned inside out
    Facts are getting the best of them
    Facts are nothing on the face of things

  68. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    But, Phil please refute the facts of the numbers I posted:

    Is 78% better than 53%?
    Is 72% better than 40%?

    They should do something that works rather than something that doesn’t. Regardless of imposing their will. I was pleasantly surprised the first time. Until I saw the formation. When it came around the 2nd time, I though they won’t seriously do it again, will they? When you are outnumbered, you are outnumbered.

  69. NoFear49erNo Gravatar says:

    “Facts are blather, now dispute my facts.” Wow. Talk out your ass much?

    Yeah, Phil, I warned you. LOL. And I didn’t think it would stop you. It doesn’t seem to stop me either. Maybe it’s enough that somebody might be interested.

    Every team runs that and similar plays on short yardage. The ChuckBerger coaching school has a lot to do to fix the NFL.

    The nonsense is if Harbaugh kicks, he’s gutless and lacks that killer instinct so he can never be a winner. If he goes for it and doesn’t convert he’s a stupid shit who loves the Singletary offense. The only plays that will satisfy the egos of these blog ex-spurts are the ones that keep losing championship games for us. “Facts be damned. They’re useless and get in the way of my know-it-all story.”

    Thus the old saw, “Listen to the fans and you’ll soon be sitting with them.”

  70. phil fanNo Gravatar says:

    Well NoFear I only listen to some of the fans here as others are a waste of brain power. Interesting distortions but not informative or useful. Took me 3 years to figure that out too, slow I guess. But then I always was curious about the thought processes of others. Just don’t get insulting and say someone is a “fan of that loser Singletary” we’ll be fine. No harm no foul but close?

    Some may feel it’s their purpose to convince others of their point of view but I don’t do that much and at a certain point (3 F-ing years?!) it gets tuned out if not supported by evidence, facts, reason. And it’s easy on this style blog to scroll past the self-important trolls and move on. Shall we?
    “Scroll the troll” hell yes. I’m not a part of past acrimony here nor will I be of any future baloney.

    Listening to the podcast I posted about = they see a Niner loss of from 10-11 points due to our being banged up, missing starters, road game, Manning, etc. Yes it will require our best efforts, no penalties, no injuries, TOs to get a win but I see us coming away with 4 point W. We saw Kaep at his close to best last week and I think good QB play continues in passing game even w/Denver’s secondary. They said our best bet is a strong running attack to capitalize on a mediocre Bronco run D. And to keep the ball away from Manning. I also hope we are pressuring him from the get go not waiting too long while they build a big lead.

    Should be a great game hopefully like when we went to NE and beat Pats on a Monday night.

  71. bullitNo Gravatar says:

    The Niner go ahead TD to Boldin was on a 3rd and 1 with 2 TEs and Boldin the only WR. The critics seem to overlook the successful plays and just bitch about plays that don’t fit their view. It was play action out of a power I
    http://www.49ers.com/news/article-2/Anatomy-of-a-Play-Colin-Kaepernicks-11-yard-Touchdown-Pass-to-Anquan-Boldin/354d1499-b8f5-40c8-abdd-1840019fddb9

  72. Del Mar Dennis (@DelMarDennis)No Gravatar says:

    “Capitalize on a mediocre Bronco run D.”

    Excuse me? Broncos rank 4th in the league in rushing yds allowed at 76.8/G (3.3 Y/A). Niners are next at 79.8/G (3.9 Y/A). If that makes the Broncos mediocre, I guess that makes us mediocre light?

    Tune that out if you think it’s still not supported by facts.

  73. NoFear49erNo Gravatar says:

    The Broncos D ranks pretty high in run D but I think the notion that they are usually ahead by ten points or more at the half sort of killing the other team’s run opportunities has some credibility, too.

  74. Del Mar Dennis (@DelMarDennis)No Gravatar says:

    The Broncos have led by an aggregate score of 86-54 at the half this year. That’s an avg. score of 17.2 to 10.8. A difference of just 6.4 pts. Not the “ten points or more at the half sort of killing the other team’s run…” that you claim.

    Oh those pesky facts once again.

  75. Del Mar Dennis (@DelMarDennis)No Gravatar says:

    You want one more fact?

    We should have signed Peyton effing Manning!

  76. NoFear49erNo Gravatar says:

    24-7
    21-10
    17-3
    21-13
    17-7

    Eff you!

  77. Del Mar Dennis (@DelMarDennis)No Gravatar says:

    That Week 3 half time score should read 3-17. Broncos were *losing* at the half to Seattle.

    No, sir. Eff you! You dyslexic ex-Gomer Pyle, U.S.M.C. You should have listened to Sgt. Vincent Carter more often.

  78. NoFear49erNo Gravatar says:

    Yeah, I know, that’s why I said USUALLY instead of always. You were trying to use that one game to disprove my statement, which is accurate.

    I wasn’t implying they were a bad run D. Just that the ranking you were touting might be a little skewed by the fact of the score at the half.

    BTW, I was US Army, not a Marine, (check the avatar) though I don’t expect you recognize the distinction.

    And maybe I should have went with a smiley face instead of the bang.

  79. Del Mar Dennis (@DelMarDennis)No Gravatar says:

    My bad. Pretty sure I knew in the deep recesses of my mind that you were US Army, but I was trying for the quick quip in regards to your miscalculation and turn it into a “Gomerism.”

    Hey. It’s tough being a “comedian.” You try reading alcohol-soaked napkins with jokes scribbled upon them. It’s bad enough that I wasn’t wearing my reading glasses. I was outside walking Frank the Cat adjusting my Halloween decorations all the while.

    Like Rodney said, “It’s Not Easy Bein’ Me.”

  80. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    It’s a song, skippy. Your ‘fact’ that the Niners blocked the play correctly is ludicrous. If they block it right, it works. It didn’t. And it didn’t work later.

    Yeah, other teams do it NoFear. That’s not the point. The point is other teams do it a lot better than we do.

    But yeah. Even though we do it badly, we should keep it up. Stiff upper lip and all that.

    You still espouse going with the 40% success rate play over the 72% success rate play?

  81. BergerNo Gravatar says:

    Some defensive posts going on here while I was away. LMAO!

  82. BergerNo Gravatar says:

    Bullit- Read my post from while I was watching the game on the play you describe. I said it was a bonehead call by Roman, no problem, Kap makes one of the greatest throws of the year, TD 49ers! I should have commented on how much pressure he was under. Kap saved Roman’s Singletary call on that play. Of course, Roman went Singletary twice more during the game and got stuffed.

  83. BergerNo Gravatar says:

    How ’bout ‘dem Giants! World Series bound!

  84. phil fanNo Gravatar says:

    Yes good on the Giants, way to go.

    More on how to beat Manning/Broncos:

    http://sfo.scout.com/story/1464073-behind-enemy-lines-how-to-slow-down-manning?s=69

    Blitz 50% of time = Arizona? Not so much
    Drop 8 in coverage ala Jets? That did work pretty well.

    Combo of the two? Fangio will have something up his sleeves

  85. SkeebersNo Gravatar says:

    New post is up.

2017 Schedule
Sept. 10: vs. Carolina, 1:25 p.m.
Sept. 17: at Seattle, 1:25 p.m.
Sept. 21: vs. L.A. Rams, 5:25 p.m.
Oct. 1: at Arizona, 1:05 p.m.
Oct. 8: at Indianapolis, 10 a.m.
Oct. 15: at Washington, 10 a.m.
Oct. 22: vs. Dallas, 1:05 p.m.
Oct. 29: at Philadelphia, 10 a.m.
Nov. 5: vs. Arizona, 1:05 p.m.
Nov. 12: vs. N.Y. Giants, 1:25 p.m.
Week 11 — Bye
Nov. 26: vs. Seattle, 1:05 p.m.
Dec. 3: at Chicago, 10 a.m.
Dec. 10: at Houston, 10 a.m.
Dec. 17: vs. Tennessee, 1:25 p.m.
Dec. 24: vs. Jacksonville, 1:05 p.m.
Dec. 31: at L.A. Rams, 1:25 p.m.
 
2017 Draft Class
1. DE Solomon Thomas
1. ILB Reuben Foster
3. CB Ahkello Witherspoon
3. QB C.J. Beathard
4. RB Joe Williams
5. TE George Kittle
5. WR Trent Taylor
6. DT D.J. Jones
6. LB Pita Taumoepenu
7. CB Adrian Colbert
 
2016 Prognostications
Closest To The Pin
  Grumpy: 3-13
  Spitblood: 3-13
  Winder: 3-13
Bakkentom: 0-16
Bullit: 5-11
Chuck: 8-8, 7-9, 9-7, 10-6
Mr Fletch: 4-12
NJ49er: 5-11
Phil Fan: 4-12
Rob: 9-7
RTFirefly: 7-9
Skeebers: 6-10

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