Bystander Blues

I’ll be rooting for Denver in Sunday’s Super Bowl. Mostly because I despise the Seahawks. I’d like to see them beaten, and embarrassed would be even better. Tawdry, perhaps, but true.

But the fate of the Seahawks casts a shadow over the 49er house, too. The two teams are similar in many ways. They each have ex-college head coaches from the PAC-12 who like to play physical, run the ball, and play good defense. Ex-49er GM Scott McCloughan had a hand in building both teams.

If Denver beats Seattle, it’s fair to assume they would have beaten the 49ers, also. In which case, I’d be glad our boys didn’t go to the game this year and wind up losing for the second year in a row. That can be a heavy psychological burden for the future.

Conversely, however, if Seattle wins, it’s fair to assume the 49ers would have won, too, which would add yet another layer of disappointment to our season.

All of which puts us 49er fans in the strange position of having to root for Peyton Manning, the guy who spurned our advances two years ago, to take out the Seahawks since we failed to do so ourselves. Thus sending Seattle into the offseason gloom that we ourselves felt a year ago when our Super Bowl dreams went pfft. These bed liaisons can certainly get queasy.

The talk of the town lately has been Colin Kaepernick’s impending new contract. The problem with Colin is that he has elite skills, but is not an elite quarterback. Most people assume he eventually will become elite, but that’s not a given. With the exception of Tony Romo, all QBs getting elite money have actually won SBs. Kaepernick has had the ball in his hands at the end of the game with a chance to win the SB last year, and the NFC Championship this year, and both times he’s failed to get the job done. It’s hard to imagine Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck failing to deliver in these circumstances. In fact, Colin arguably hasn’t accomplished anything more with this team than Alex Smith would likely have accomplished — and maybe even less.

What we will be able to discover is just how hard a bargain Kaepernick and his agent drive. One that represents his accomplishments to date, or one that reflects what he might accomplish in the future, or what he might get from another team in free agency. It will tell us a lot about how much Colin values being on a great team versus how much value he places on his bank account.

The problem with paying one guy a sixth of the entire salary cap is that guy must BE the one who carries the team to the SB. Like Manning has done with Denver. The Broncos didn’t get here by playing great defense. Teams with elite money QBs can’t afford elite defenses, too. And no QB getting elite money has ever won a SB. They won SBs before they got the money. Perhaps Manning will be the first to win one AFTER getting the money.

In the meantime, we 49er fans will spend our 20th consecutive season sitting on the sofa watching some other franchise hoist the Lombardi. Sigh.





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Posted in FOS Speculation
128 comments on “Bystander Blues
  1. bullitNo Gravatar says:

    Berger

    The only CB worthy of a #1 pick IMO is Dennard.
    For me a #1 drafted CB must be a shutdown corner that can contribute at least as a nickel back as a rookie.
    #1 picks in the last draft Dee Millner and DJ Hayden proved disappointing and identifying CBs might be as perplexing as WRs.
    With that said Niners need to draft BPA between WR/CB.

  2. bullitNo Gravatar says:

    Berger should be in love with the Bronco NT Terance Knighton.
    That guy can play and he has a big fat ass (we know berger is an ass man). He’s listed at 295 but looking at him he’s got to be at least 330 of which 50 lbs is ass based.
    Denver signed him as a FA from the Jags and that was a good move.

  3. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    Giving up on next year, Dennis? Getting an early start, I see. Did someone slaughter Peyton Manning yet?

  4. NJ49erNo Gravatar says:

    Peyton got abused by a good Defense.
    Thought I heard him audible OMG,OMG a few times tonight.

    Anyone else?

  5. NJ49erNo Gravatar says:

    Bullit I’m guilty of wanting the Channel Marker NT too.
    Fat Man in the Middle to clog things up has always been the model of the 3-4 NT for me.

    Seems I’m showing my age perhaps?
    Fangio is happy to have those squatty little 300Lb guys with short legs to do the dirty work inside.

    Whatever works….

  6. NJ49erNo Gravatar says:

    Which is why I’m leaning a little more heavily toward DT Aaron Donald from Pitt.
    Busy little dude that no one can contain.

  7. BergerNo Gravatar says:

    NJ- Aaron Donald is going to be a 4-3 DT or a 3-4 DE. I think he’ll be a decent player from what I’ve read. I’ve only read about him. I need to watch some footage to get a better idea.

  8. bullitNo Gravatar says:

    NJ

    Two similar guys Reggie McGrew and Anthony Adams taken in rds 1 and 2 didn’t work out. That’s why the draft is a crapshoot.
    I love the fact that teams desperate for QBs will drop some quality guys down our way.
    I am happy for now with Dorsey and Ian Williams at NT.
    Jerod-Eddie is a surprise and a keeper. Want there to be room for Dial and Okoye to get their chance where drafting someone high pushes them down on the depth chart and cuts into their playing time.

  9. bullitNo Gravatar says:

    Of course McGrew and Adams were from about 10 years ago.
    Just trying to say they didn’t work out as hoped for the Niners although Adams continues to play for the Bears.

  10. BergerNo Gravatar says:

    I think we have a player on the team who will be able to take over for Justin in another year. Quinton Dial. He as size and athleticism. I’d like to see if he can bull rush but I know he can do everything else. He’s not great at any one thing but he is well balanced and solid all around. Justin Smith is one of the great bull rushers of all time. That is the one thing that will be very hard to replace.

  11. bullitNo Gravatar says:

    Berger

    Justin Smith or Tomsula needs to teach Dial or Carradine the technique of holding two Olinemen to free up Aldon or Brooks.

  12. BergerNo Gravatar says:

    Bullit- McGrew was always hurt. We never got to see what we drafted. Adams was a very good DT. Nolan grossly misused him. He left here and played great for the Bears.

  13. NJ49erNo Gravatar says:

    I agree Bullit.
    Many of these rotational guys could be had later too.

    With 12 Picks, it’s ammo to trade up with as well.
    Seattle spent FA money on Bennett and Avril.
    We could obtain similar guys via the Draft at much better prices.

    I’m expecting them to concentrate on the WR/DB areas in May.
    Wouldn’t be surprised to see them acquire a pair of both.

    Tank and Dial are likely in line to replace Justin and RayMcD.
    Having another DT inside wouldn’t hurt, as Dorsey isn’t a pup anymore.
    Okoye is still raw in terms of development too.

    As I’ve mentioned, a ‘tweener’ like Shazier, could provide some help within our Nickel Pkg too, as Fangio likes to lighten the Box on passing downs.

    The more you watch Chancellor, the more I like the idea of bigger DBs playing in the middle of the field.
    A SS is easier to find than a quality FS IMO.

    Reid was a good catch for us.

  14. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    Justin Gilbert begs to differ. He likely goes top 10. Love to get him but there’s no shot. Dennard may last til the 2nd round. People already question Dennard’s athleticism and coverage skills. He addressed this by bailing on the Senior Bowl. He might be too high as a late 1st. Stanley Baptiste is an interesting guy. Sherman size. 6’3″ 215. Played press-cover well in Neb. Ran a 4.46 40. He may go early but he’s projected late 1st, early 2nd.

    Anyone talking about Justin Ellis? He graded out well at the Senior Bowl. Your fat boy, NJ. Quick for a big dude. Close to 350. Maybe one of our 3rds.

  15. NJ49erNo Gravatar says:

    I also could see Dobbs getting challenged for his spot on the DLine with some younger talent Bullit.
    For me, the Draft is where you have to be strong.

    Rotational guys via the Draft are much cheaper than spending in FA.
    If Iupati is expecting too much, having Kilgore or Looney in the wings buys time.
    Iupati also commands a higher Comp Pick if he defects.

  16. BergerNo Gravatar says:

    Bullit- That is not exactly how it works. Holding up two players doesn’t do anything for a pass rush. Smith pushes OTs back into the QB. It is a skill not many in the history of football can do. It absolutely creates double team blocks coming at him. Don’t expect Dial to be able to do that. If he could he would have been drafted in the first round.

    Holding up two players is something I have seen Dial do in the running game. He’s pretty good at that as well as getting a little pass rush generated. I would compare Dial to Red Bryant. I would be happy if he could come close to that. If you want another Justin Smith he will need to be taken in Rd 1 and the last player available in the draft like that was JJ Watt. They don’t come around every year. One guy this year who is kind of similar is a NT. His name is Nix and he is very similar to BJ Raji.

  17. NJ49erNo Gravatar says:

    Yeh Chuck, I’ve been combing through 100s of prospect rankings.

    I’m also leaning toward Stanley Jean-Baptist as a taller CB.
    Kenny Ladler from Vandy is interesting as a SS option too.
    My list is heavy on WR and DBs right now.
    Combines will show more about how they look athletically.

    Several small school guys look interesting to me.
    CB Pierre Desir from Lindenwood,CB Ross Cockrell from Duke,DT Zach Kerr from Delaware among others.

    Later Rd developmental-type guys, to offset the higher dollar guys we’d likely want to retain, for a few more years.

    TBrock is a good example of those small school guys that stuck it out and made it.

    Better to go that route then to spend high and miss IMO.

  18. bullitNo Gravatar says:

    Chuck

    Flip flopping again? Last month you discounted the significance of Quinton Patton improving his draft stock at last year’s Senior Bowl workouts when I brought it up.
    Now you’re 180 degrees opposite and citing how players did in this year’s Senior Bowl?
    You are just trying to be a troll as usual I see.

  19. bullitNo Gravatar says:

    Maiocco just posted this tonight about Kap’s last pass in the NFCCG
    “Colin Kaepernick made the decision pre-snap to throw to Michael Crabtree, matched in single coverage against Richard Sherman, in the end zone on a stop-and-go route. The mistake was not the decision to challenge Sherman. The mistake that Kaepernick made was that he immediately telegraphed the throw. When he locked onto that throw, it gave linebacker Malcolm Smith enough time to trail the play to get into position for the interception. If Kaepernick had just given a quick glance to the left side, Smith would have been frozen and there’s no way he would’ve gotten to the spot in time to intercept the pass. It would have been an incompletion, and the 49ers would’ve had a couple more chances.”

    I said that last week, even if it’s a presnap read you still can’t telegraph your intent and alert the db you’re coming his way. IMO one of the subtle nuances of good QBing is looking off DBs or in this case the LB. Something Kap needs to work on and master to get better as a QB.

  20. NJ49erNo Gravatar says:

    That’s the knock on Kaep Bullit.
    He’s far from a complete QB at this point.
    He relies on primary reads too often and doesn’t survey the field properly.

    He’s quick to read once and run IMO.
    He’s got to develop patience in order to make this Offense more prolific.
    Sure, we’re going to debate the Roman Jumbo and all that fodder but, Kaep has to develop into more of a complete QB.

    I’d read, and heard him admit, that he saw the matchup pre-snap and made up his mind he was going that way.

    Bad decision?
    Certainly.
    Worse yet is, ignoring other options in the process.

    This is the major concern with respect to his future Contract expectations.

  21. NJ49erNo Gravatar says:

    Also read that he was putting the blame on the SB loss with Harbaugh for calling the time out.
    Fact is, Harbaugh saved the loss of 5 yards for the delay of game.

    Kaep, or his Agent, had better not feel as though he’s arrived just yet.
    He’s got a lot to learn.

  22. NJ49erNo Gravatar says:

    Many are quick to point at the lack or WRs being an issue too.
    In the final formation in Seattle he locked onto 1, and only 1.
    As he did in the SB.

    Not going to fool many of the better Defenses doing that.
    I’ve gone on record suggesting that the team should extend him long term if able.
    He’s shown enough of the ‘It’ factor for me to think he’s worth keeping.

    It’s also dependent on him to improve on these deficiencies as well.

  23. bullitNo Gravatar says:

    Mayock compares Donald to Geno Atkins
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fD1SLhXIaBc

  24. NJ49erNo Gravatar says:

    I have no problem with that comparison Bullit.
    Donald is relentless.
    Perhaps the shorter guys possess an advantage when the bigger guys can’t get their hands on them?

    All I can say is, he’s worthy of consideration, if he’s on the Board for us at Pick 30.

    I’m impressed because he doesn’t quit, much like Justin, only more compact in size.

  25. NJ49erNo Gravatar says:

    Looking at a guy like Seattle LB Malcom Smith.
    A 7th Rd Draft Pick.
    6’0″ 226
    Nothing spectacular Bio-wise.
    As we know now, he might’ve made the play of the game in Seattle a couple of weeks ago.
    He’s a SB MVP now as well.

    Perhaps we strike similar gold with 6th Rd Pick, Nick Moody from FSU?
    Sometimes these late Rd guys make more of an impact then most Draft Experts can even begin to think about.

    Doesn’t cost you anything in terms of Cap money to take a few shots with Draft Picks.
    It’s all on the Scouts and the GM to uncover these guys.

  26. NJ49erNo Gravatar says:

    Interesting too is, Moody played S at one point.
    Hard to know what the future holds.

  27. SkeebersNo Gravatar says:

    New post is up.

  28. unca_chuckNo Gravatar says:

    Yes, NJ, it’s incumbent on Kappy to get better at progressions. However, it’s also on the coaches to design better passing plays.

    Hey, Bullitt, you continue to whine like a bitch, I’ll treat you like one. Yes, I can tout the rising NT from his senior bowl success. Why? Because I can. You seem to revel in these supposed gotcha moments. Yay Buwwitt! You are so cool!

    Get a life, dipstick. Or better yet try posting on my site without your usual hidden agenda. Chickenboy.

2014 Schedule
1. 9/7 @ DAL: W 28-17
2. 9-14 vs CHI: L 20-28
3. 9/21 @ ARI: L 14-23
4. 9-28 vs PHI: W 26-21
5. 10/5 vs KC: W 22-17
6. 10/13 @ STL: W 31-17
7. 10/19 @ DEN: L 17-42
8. BYE
9. 11/2 vs STL: L 10-13
10. 11/9 @ NO: W 27-24
11. 11/16 @ NYG: W 16-10
12. 11/23 vs WAS: W 17-13
13. 11/27 vs SEA: L 3-19
14. 12/7 @ OAK
15. 12/14 @ SEA
16. 12/20 vs SD
17. 12/28 vs ARI
 
2014 Prognostications
NJ49er: 11-5
Berger: 11-5
Grumpy: 10-5-1
Rob: 13-3
Skeebers: 12-4
Winder: 10-6
Earl: 12-4
Mr Fletch: 12-4
Phil Fan: 11-5
Chuck: 11-3-2
Bullit: 11-5
Bigjon: 13-3
Tony: 14-2
RTFirefly: 11-4-1
Dennis: 9-7

2014 Draft Class
1 Jimmie Ward, S/CB
2 Carlos Hyde, RB
3 Marcus Martin, C
3 Chris Borland, ILB
3 Brandon Thomas, OG
4 Bruce Ellington, WR
4 Dontae Johnson, CB
5 Aaron Lynch, LB
5 Keith Reaser, CB
6 Kenneth Acker, CB
7 Kaleb Ramsey, DE
7 Trey Millard, FB
 
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